Created on 07 Mar 2020 ;    Modified on 30 Mar 2020 ;    Translationitalian

Time trend of Coronavirus Covid-19 in Italy

Note. Data updated at 30-03-2020.

This article reports the temporal trend of the data of the Italian Ministry of Health released by the Civil Protection, related to the COVID-19 epidemic that has hit Italy since February 2020.

Until 6th of March 2020, the Civil Protection published data daily via two pdf file. One reported the national situation as a whole, the other indicated the cases for each individual province.

Since the 7th of March, the data have been published through a web page, which graphically reports the situation.

Moreover, since the same date, Civil Protection spreads data about outbreak by Github, in Italian, at the links:

Graphical analysis

Below is the graph of the historical series of cumulative data relating to the epidemic, usind data from previous national trend.

In the graph I show:

  • the numbers of infected cases (positive);
  • those, unfortunately, deceased;
  • and finally the healed.
COVID-19, Italy


Instead, the following graph shows the trend of positive cases in the past 4 days, aggregated by region.

COVID-19, Italy, regions

Some remarks

Update on March 18th 2020. About the national trend, I feel the need to remark the following fact. Various sources of information are using the general total of daily data of the Ministry of Health to account for the change in the epidemic.

This number indicates the total number of people affected by the virus, adding three different groups: sick, healed and deceased. This quantity give us an idea of ​​the overall impact of phenomenon. It can only increase. And when all this ends, it will take on a fixed value: constant, equal to the maximum value reached. The slope of this curve (i.e. its daily variation, used by many news media) tells us if the speed with which the virus impacts the country as a whole decreases. But it is not the right indicator to measure the virulence of the infection.

The data relating to each of the aforementioned groups are precious. The analysis of each of these classes tells us something about how we are dealing with the epidemic. For example, observe how it varies the number of people healed per day, after a few weeks, can tell us how the therapies adopted are effective.

But the total of these three quantities is much more articulated, and if the analysis is not pointig in the right direction, it gives us misleading indications. Remember the concept of adding apples with pears, who taught us in elementary school? It is just that.

To understand the progress of the infection, it is necessary to analyze the size of the group formed by infected people, and only these. The healed and the deceased are no longer infected. Both of these cases are defeats for the virus, which is not more able to propagate using them as vectors.

The size of the group of infected people is the red line in the upper box of the national trend. To observe the variation of the slope of this curve is particularly important: it tells us the speed of spreading the virus.

Even just the total number of infected people (note: not the total of people affected: infected + healed + deceased) is complex to analyze. Consider the fact that every day the other two classes (heale and deceased) contribute to this measure: they subtract to the number of infected. While the number of new positives adds up. The slope of the total of infected people is the result of these three quantities, antagonistic to each other.

I find misleading the term new_currently_positive that Civil Protection uses in its data tables. In my data analysis I call this column change of positives because it is the difference between the total of the positives of the day and the total of the positives from the previous day.

The number of people joining the positive group for the first time, also known as the new currently positive, can be calculated by adding to the changes of positives the number of people who left the group: the people healed during the course of the day and the deceased during the day. If you do this operation, in this period there is a notable increase in new positives compliance with the provisions of the Civil Protection. End of update on March 18th 2020

Used data

The details of data used to generate the graph about the national trend are shown below (copy of this font of Italian Civil Protection):

national trend
date overall hospit. quarantine at home positives change of positives healed deceased overall cases
2020-02-24 127 94 221 221 1 7 229
2020-02-25 150 162 311 90 1 10 322
2020-02-26 164 221 385 74 3 12 400
2020-02-27 304 284 588 203 45 17 650
2020-02-28 409 412 821 233 46 21 888
2020-02-29 506 543 1049 228 50 29 1128
2020-03-01 779 798 1577 528 83 34 1694
2020-03-02 908 927 1835 258 149 52 2036
2020-03-03 1263 1000 2263 428 160 79 2502
2020-03-04 1641 1065 2706 443 276 107 3089
2020-03-05 2141 1155 3296 590 414 148 3858
2020-03-06 2856 1060 3916 620 523 197 4636
2020-03-07 3218 1843 5061 1145 589 233 5883
2020-03-08 4207 2180 6387 1326 622 366 7375
2020-03-09 5049 2936 7985 1598 724 463 9172
2020-03-10 5915 2599 8514 529 1004 631 10149
2020-03-11 6866 3724 10590 2076 1045 827 12462
2020-03-12 7803 5036 12839 2249 1258 1016 15113
2020-03-13 8754 6201 14955 2116 1439 1266 17660
2020-03-14 9890 7860 17750 2795 1966 1441 21157
2020-03-15 11335 9268 20603 2853 2335 1809 24747
2020-03-16 12876 10197 23073 2470 2749 2158 27980
2020-03-17 14954 11108 26062 2989 2941 2503 31506
2020-03-18 16620 12090 28710 2648 4025 2978 35713
2020-03-19 18255 14935 33190 4480 4440 3405 41035
2020-03-20 18675 19185 37860 4670 5129 4032 47021
2020-03-21 20565 22116 42681 4821 6072 4825 53578
2020-03-22 22855 23783 46638 3957 7024 5476 59138
2020-03-23 23896 26522 50418 3780 7432 6077 63927
2020-03-24 25333 28697 54030 3612 8326 6820 69176
2020-03-25 26601 30920 57521 3491 9362 7503 74386
2020-03-26 28365 33648 62013 4492 10361 8165 80539
2020-03-27 29761 36653 66414 4401 10950 9134 86498
2020-03-28 30532 39533 70065 3651 12384 10023 92472
2020-03-29 31292 42588 73880 3815 13030 10779 97689
2020-03-30 31776 43752 75528 1648 14620 11591 101739

Notes about data regard the national trend:

  • March 10 2020 - partial data from Lombardia
  • March 11 2020 - not received data from Abruzzo

Instead for the trend of positive cases in the regions in the last four days we used the following data (extracted from this data source of Italian Civil Protection)

regional trend, last seven days every region
date region name overall hospit. quarantine at home positives change of positives new positives healed deceased overall cases
2020-03-24 Abruzzo 291 331 622 17   21 46 689
2020-03-25 Abruzzo 307 431 738 116 124.0 23 52 813
2020-03-26 Abruzzo 344 516 860 122 133.0 23 63 946
2020-03-27 Abruzzo 360 565 925 65 71.0 24 68 1017
2020-03-28 Abruzzo 381 646 1027 102 116.0 30 76 1133
2020-03-29 Abruzzo 397 772 1169 142 160.0 36 88 1293
2020-03-30 Abruzzo 391 778 1169 0 52.0 74 102 1345
2020-03-24 Basilicata 26 65 91 2   0 1 92
2020-03-25 Basilicata 34 78 112 21 21.0 0 1 113
2020-03-26 Basilicata 38 95 133 21 21.0 0 1 134
2020-03-27 Basilicata 37 110 147 14 17.0 1 3 151
2020-03-28 Basilicata 45 133 178 31 31.0 1 3 182
2020-03-29 Basilicata 50 147 197 19 20.0 1 4 202
2020-03-30 Basilicata 54 154 208 11 12.0 1 5 214
2020-03-24 Calabria 109 195 304 24   5 10 319
2020-03-25 Calabria 116 217 333 29 32.0 7 11 351
2020-03-26 Calabria 124 248 372 39 42.0 7 14 393
2020-03-27 Calabria 125 344 469 97 101.0 7 18 494
2020-03-28 Calabria 129 394 523 54 61.0 11 21 555
2020-03-29 Calabria 143 434 577 54 59.0 12 25 614
2020-03-30 Calabria 148 454 602 25 33.0 14 31 647
2020-03-24 Campania 526 466 992 63   53 56 1101
2020-03-25 Campania 441 631 1072 80 98.0 53 74 1199
2020-03-26 Campania 562 607 1169 97 111.0 58 83 1310
2020-03-27 Campania 569 723 1292 123 144.0 64 98 1454
2020-03-28 Campania 595 812 1407 115 138.0 76 109 1592
2020-03-29 Campania 611 945 1556 149 167.0 86 117 1759
2020-03-30 Campania 594 1145 1739 183 193.0 88 125 1952
2020-03-24 Emilia Romagna 3265 4446 7711 491   558 985 9254
2020-03-25 Emilia Romagna 3474 4782 8256 545 800.0 721 1077 10054
2020-03-26 Emilia Romagna 3655 5195 8850 594 762.0 792 1174 10816
2020-03-27 Emilia Romagna 3769 5592 9361 511 772.0 960 1267 11588
2020-03-28 Emilia Romagna 4011 5953 9964 603 795.0 1075 1344 12383
2020-03-29 Emilia Romagna 4102 6433 10535 571 736.0 1141 1443 13119
2020-03-30 Emilia Romagna 4130 6636 10766 231 412.0 1227 1538 13531
2020-03-24 Friuli Venezia Giulia 244 604 848 77   80 64 992
2020-03-25 Friuli Venezia Giulia 252 659 911 63 147.0 158 70 1139
2020-03-26 Friuli Venezia Giulia 266 688 954 43 84.0 197 72 1223
2020-03-27 Friuli Venezia Giulia 279 748 1027 73 94.0 214 76 1317
2020-03-28 Friuli Venezia Giulia 282 838 1120 93 119.0 229 87 1436
2020-03-29 Friuli Venezia Giulia 296 845 1141 21 44.0 241 98 1480
2020-03-30 Friuli Venezia Giulia 289 820 1109 -32 21.0 285 107 1501
2020-03-24 Lazio 841 704 1545 131   103 80 1728
2020-03-25 Lazio 906 769 1675 130 173.0 131 95 1901
2020-03-26 Lazio 991 844 1835 160 195.0 155 106 2096
2020-03-27 Lazio 1118 895 2013 178 199.0 164 118 2295
2020-03-28 Lazio 1118 1063 2181 168 210.0 200 124 2505
2020-03-29 Lazio 1195 1167 2362 181 201.0 208 136 2706
2020-03-30 Lazio 1233 1264 2497 135 208.0 267 150 2914
2020-03-24 Liguria 950 742 1692 139   193 231 2116
2020-03-25 Liguria 1074 752 1826 134 189.0 225 254 2305
2020-03-26 Liguria 1152 875 2027 201 262.0 260 280 2567
2020-03-27 Liguria 1180 880 2060 33 129.0 305 331 2696
2020-03-28 Liguria 1198 888 2086 26 126.0 378 358 2822
2020-03-29 Liguria 1243 1036 2279 193 254.0 420 377 3076
2020-03-30 Liguria 1317 1066 2383 104 141.0 437 397 3217
2020-03-24 Lombardia 10905 8963 19868 958   6657 4178 30703
2020-03-25 Lombardia 11262 9329 20591 723 1643.0 7281 4474 32346
2020-03-26 Lombardia 11944 10245 22189 1598 2543.0 7839 4861 34889
2020-03-27 Lombardia 12429 11466 23895 1706 2409.0 8001 5402 37298
2020-03-28 Lombardia 12471 12038 24509 614 2117.0 8962 5944 39415
2020-03-29 Lombardia 12941 12451 25392 883 1592.0 9255 6360 41007
2020-03-30 Lombardia 13145 11861 25006 -386 1154.0 10337 6818 42161
2020-03-24 Marche 1011 1486 2497 139   8 231 2736
2020-03-25 Marche 1086 1553 2639 142 198.0 8 287 2934
2020-03-26 Marche 1143 1652 2795 156 180.0 9 310 3114
2020-03-27 Marche 1141 1709 2850 55 82.0 10 336 3196
2020-03-28 Marche 1153 1846 2999 149 177.0 10 364 3373
2020-03-29 Marche 1168 1992 3160 161 185.0 12 386 3558
2020-03-30 Marche 1165 2086 3251 91 126.0 16 417 3684
2020-03-24 Molise 34 21 55 5   10 8 73
2020-03-25 Molise 33 20 53 -2 0.0 12 8 73
2020-03-26 Molise 35 46 81 28 30.0 14 8 103
2020-03-27 Molise 35 51 86 5 6.0 14 9 109
2020-03-28 Molise 35 63 98 12 14.0 16 9 123
2020-03-29 Molise 34 66 100 2 4.0 18 9 127
2020-03-30 Molise 35 72 107 7 7.0 18 9 134
2020-03-24 P.A. Bolzano 204 495 699 11   44 38 781
2020-03-25 P.A. Bolzano 230 518 748 49 77.0 67 43 858
2020-03-26 P.A. Bolzano 266 525 791 43 48.0 67 48 906
2020-03-27 P.A. Bolzano 294 539 833 42 97.0 110 60 1003
2020-03-28 P.A. Bolzano 276 653 929 96 106.0 116 64 1109
2020-03-29 P.A. Bolzano 290 744 1034 105 105.0 116 64 1214
2020-03-30 P.A. Bolzano 293 805 1098 64 111.0 153 74 1325
2020-03-24 P.A. Trento 357 618 975 61   79 56 1110
2020-03-25 P.A. Trento 373 685 1058 83 112.0 90 74 1222
2020-03-26 P.A. Trento 366 728 1094 36 75.0 117 86 1297
2020-03-27 P.A. Trento 407 757 1164 70 94.0 125 102 1391
2020-03-28 P.A. Trento 423 811 1234 70 114.0 151 120 1505
2020-03-29 P.A. Trento 431 862 1293 59 89.0 172 129 1594
2020-03-30 P.A. Trento 431 926 1357 64 88.0 178 147 1682
2020-03-24 Piemonte 2764 2360 5124 595   17 374 5515
2020-03-25 Piemonte 2925 2631 5556 432 509.0 19 449 6024
2020-03-26 Piemonte 3041 2909 5950 394 510.0 135 449 6534
2020-03-27 Piemonte 3283 3064 6347 397 558.0 176 569 7092
2020-03-28 Piemonte 3533 3318 6851 504 579.0 203 617 7671
2020-03-29 Piemonte 3428 3840 7268 417 535.0 254 684 8206
2020-03-30 Piemonte 3437 4218 7655 387 506.0 308 749 8712
2020-03-24 Puglia 374 566 940 78   21 44 1005
2020-03-25 Puglia 413 610 1023 83 88.0 22 48 1093
2020-03-26 Puglia 556 539 1095 72 89.0 22 65 1182
2020-03-27 Puglia 612 624 1236 141 152.0 29 69 1334
2020-03-28 Puglia 661 697 1358 122 124.0 29 71 1458
2020-03-29 Puglia 658 774 1432 74 91.0 31 86 1549
2020-03-30 Puglia 696 889 1585 153 163.0 36 91 1712
2020-03-24 Sardegna 99 296 395 52   11 15 421
2020-03-25 Sardegna 101 311 412 17 21.0 12 18 442
2020-03-26 Sardegna 112 350 462 50 52.0 13 19 494
2020-03-27 Sardegna 112 384 496 34 36.0 13 21 530
2020-03-28 Sardegna 117 452 569 73 94.0 29 26 624
2020-03-29 Sardegna 128 454 582 13 14.0 29 27 638
2020-03-30 Sardegna 137 485 622 40 44.0 32 28 682
2020-03-24 Sicilia 310 489 799 118   27 20 846
2020-03-25 Sicilia 339 597 936 137 148.0 33 25 994
2020-03-26 Sicilia 414 681 1095 159 170.0 36 33 1164
2020-03-27 Sicilia 500 658 1158 63 86.0 53 39 1250
2020-03-28 Sicilia 512 730 1242 84 109.0 60 57 1359
2020-03-29 Sicilia 522 808 1330 88 101.0 65 65 1460
2020-03-30 Sicilia 559 849 1408 78 95.0 71 76 1555
2020-03-24 Toscana 1162 1357 2519 218   51 129 2699
2020-03-25 Toscana 1250 1526 2776 257 273.0 54 142 2972
2020-03-26 Toscana 1296 1677 2973 197 254.0 95 158 3226
2020-03-27 Toscana 1327 1843 3170 197 224.0 103 177 3450
2020-03-28 Toscana 1370 2141 3511 341 367.0 108 198 3817
2020-03-29 Toscana 1386 2400 3786 275 305.0 121 215 4122
2020-03-30 Toscana 1395 2655 4050 264 290.0 131 231 4412
2020-03-24 Umbria 148 476 624 68   5 19 648
2020-03-25 Umbria 167 519 686 62 62.0 5 19 710
2020-03-26 Umbria 190 580 770 84 92.0 12 20 802
2020-03-27 Umbria 195 629 824 54 82.0 39 21 884
2020-03-28 Umbria 203 695 898 74 85.0 43 28 969
2020-03-29 Umbria 212 685 897 -1 54.0 95 31 1023
2020-03-30 Umbria 220 614 834 -63 28.0 184 33 1051
2020-03-24 Valle d'Aosta 91 288 379 0   2 19 400
2020-03-25 Valle d'Aosta 95 280 375 -4 1.0 2 24 401
2020-03-26 Valle d'Aosta 97 281 378 3 7.0 2 28 408
2020-03-27 Valle d'Aosta 115 298 413 35 44.0 2 37 452
2020-03-28 Valle d'Aosta 116 352 468 55 59.0 2 41 511
2020-03-29 Valle d'Aosta 116 423 539 71 73.0 2 43 584
2020-03-30 Valle d'Aosta 118 400 518 -21 0.0 16 50 584
2020-03-24 Veneto 1622 3729 5351 365   381 216 5948
2020-03-25 Veneto 1723 4022 5745 394 494.0 439 258 6442
2020-03-26 Veneto 1773 4367 6140 395 493.0 508 287 6935
2020-03-27 Veneto 1874 4774 6648 508 562.0 536 313 7497
2020-03-28 Veneto 1903 5010 6913 265 433.0 655 362 7930
2020-03-29 Veneto 1941 5310 7251 338 428.0 715 392 8358
2020-03-30 Veneto 1989 5575 7564 313 366.0 747 413 8724