Created on 09 Aug 2019 ;    Modified on 08 Sep 2019 ;    Translationitalian

The opinion: government crisis, August 2019

Well, here we are. It's official. Today, the 9th of August 2019, the Lega party presented the motion of no-confidence in the current Governament [1]. Government to which it belongs, along with the Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) party.

We all expected that, sooner or later. Government contract or not, the fact that two political parties so viscerally different ruled together was a true miracle of circus equilibrists.

With the difference that the equilibrists train hard every single day to team up and complete the show together. In this case instead some politicians from both sides have done everything possible to put a spoke in the wheels of the opposing party. I would say, without realizing that now they were sailing together: to scupper the boat meant to end up both in the water, and not just rivals.

Why was the boat wrecked? Surely it happened because of the TAV deal.

It was clear that the Minister of Transport, of the M5S party, did not want to continue the work of the TAV: he kept waiting, just to avoid clashing immediately with the Lega party.

Faced with urgent deadlines at the European Community level, the Prime Minister, mr. Conte, had to take a position between the two sides within his government: the Lega that was pressing to continue with the TAV and the M5S party that intended to stop it, even if not it said so explicitly.

After analyzing the situation, the First Minister decided to give the green light to the continuation of work. Result: M5S party opposed, in particular the Minister of Transport, mr. Toninelli, and requested to have the Chambers vote.

Good job! The M5S party representatives definitely proved to be smart politicians. To the Chambers! Who have already voted several times about this subject, and always with a favorable outcome for the TAV.

The vote in the Chambers ended as expected: the M5S party was beaten.

What did not end up as planned was the long wave of the undertow of the vote.

If the M5S thought of saving the savable to make it clear to their electorate that the TAV will be done without their support, on the other hand it has neglected the vote has highlighted a fundamental political fact: the M5S has not accepted one decision of the head of the Government of which they themselves are exponents.

A morsel too delicious, not to be bitten by Salvini and the whole Lega party.

Let's try to understand his point of view.

First of all, do you remember the Siri case? The representative of the League, undersecretary to the Ministry of Transport, investigated for corruption. In the early days of May 2019, after wide debate, between Lega and M5S, First Minister Conte had to advocate the judgment if allowing Siri to continue to hold the position of government. On that occasion the premier decided to fiere Siri, revoking him the mandates. Salvini (Lega party) wasn't happy, but accepted the Conte's decision .

Now, with a scenario in some ways similar, but an unfavorable decision to the M5S party, this, instead of accept the decision of Prime Minister, call the judgment of the Chambers? Two weights two sizes? From Salvini's point of view, definitely inconsistent and not acceptable.

Let's add the fact that the Lega party in the European elections sailed with the wind at its back, exactly the opposite of the M5S party, which has lost large sections of the electorate. And, with the current political scenario, all the voting forecasts confirm the trend positive of the Lega party.

Result: to Salvini, and to the Lega party, who makes him to continue to tear a boat that takes water and slows down more and more? Better to go to the elections as soon as possible, to get a lot of votes, and launch a new boat (Government) eventually with the unconditional support of Meloni (Fratelli d'Italia party) and, perhaps the conditioned support of Berlusconi (Forza Italia party). But, it would be better if the votes were so many to allow launching the boat alone.

Not to mention that:

  • the Chambers would remain as they are, instead of halving the places available to Deputies and Senators;
  • we would no longer talk about changing the limitation period for judicial procedures;

both measures not completely digested by the Lega party (especially the second), and strongly sponsored by the M5S party.

In this baillame, what is the position of the third political force: the Democratic Party (PD)?

Suicide: run to the elections. At least so his secretary, Zingaretti, states.

The alternative would be a government ruled by M5S party and PD party, Personally, I do not consider probable this hypotesys. Too much antagonism on both sides. It is no longer the times of clever politicians of the 1970s and later. Those that when they went to talk in the meetings they were able to combine ideals, ideas and programs, as well as some polemic with opponents.

Now instead we are invaded by an american-style political class. The target is to get back the job, not to understand what is the best for the nation and those who live in it.

Result: in meetings they speech to people by slogans [2], polemics and insults. And they aren't willing to present to the voters measures that may be unpopular, even if necessary.

Moreover: they camouflage themselves behind strength labels, to then approve measures that favor the upper classes [3].

Let's go back to the political crisis. I say: with a political class unable to dialogue, note: dialogue means being able to find common ground to understand each other, being able to build a government that unites M5S party with the PD party is unlikely as keeping together M5S party and Lega party.

How will the government crisis end? My personal opinion is: good vote to everybody.

We'll see if in a few days we'll have different news. See you soon. ldfa

Update of August 26, 2019

Well, in these days Movimento 5 Stelle and Partito Democratico are discussing the possibility of setting up a government to continue the legislature until its natural expiry. I remain skeptical ... but we'll see.

Meanwhile I am also considering the hypothesis that the government crisis wanted by the League, they used the TAV deal ​​as a mirror for larks.

In reality, Salvini may have carefully considered the need for having to carry out in autumn an ​​economic maneuver of the "tears and blood" type, that would have forced him to break a lot of electoral promises. Starting with: "we make lower taxes (to those with a good income)".

How to avoid it? Beat your feet on the ground and clamor for overcoming of the European budgetary rules would have had no effect. So: we invoke the government crisis, which can end only in two ways:

  • or M5S and PD form a government, and at this point they peel off the hot potato of the autumn economic maneuver, burning their hands (and losing electorate, in favor of the Lega);
  • or they don't form a new government and Italy will go to early elections, with voting provisions in favor of the League.

However it ends, ... it would end well for the League. To emerge unharmed from such a scenario M5S and PD should play really well!

Keep in touch. ldfa

Update of September 08, 2019

Well, M5S and PD have formed a new government, again leaded by Giuseppe Conte. I wouldn't have bet an Euro cent on it. And this says a lot about my reliability as a political columnist.

However, tomorrow, on Monday 09th September 2019, the new government will begin its journey to the Chambers, presenting its program and asking for their votes of confidence.

How long will it hold up? I hope it lasts a long time, given that in this period of economic crisis, the addition of political crises only inflate uncertainties and difficulty.

But I must observe that, while the Head of Government asks M5S and PD to avoid the controversies that characterized the previous legislature, these parties continue to "heatedly" discuss some points of the program that are particularly critical ... We will see.

And: be careful not to burn your fingers :-)

Keep in touch. ldfa

[1]Source: ANSA
[2]Digression about the american-style political class. Do you know that Salvini has a spin doctor? No? Me neither. I came to know it by reading this article of Il fatto quotidiano. What is a spin doctor? If you, like me, ignore the term, go to read the definition of spin on Wikipedia. Introduction is: "In public relations and politics, spin is a form of propaganda, achieved through knowingly providing a biased interpretation of an event or campaigning to persuade public opinion in favor or against some organization or public figure. ... ". A spin doctor is an expert in spin techniques. Americans were forerunners in this field, since the early decades of the 1900s. End of digression.
[3]Digression. Do you know Salvini's "before the Italians"? What is Trump saying? The same thing: "America first". After that, if Trump with its duty policy seeks to impose American products on its (and on our) market, and he rejects the Italian ones (read: increase its employed, and our unemployed), what do we have to complain about? We have accepted his own logic: instead of helping each other, let's go to the fight. Guess who succumbs? Most weak. And Italy alone is no stronger than the USA. Logical consequence: we look for allies. Such as? Arguing with France and Germany? There is something I don't understand ... End of the digression.
[4]Other digression. You ever asked yourself why the only governments publicly praised by Confindustria were the last PD party governments: Renzi and Gentiloni? Now: the PD party is a self-styled left (or democrat) party. Old times left party meant having the population at heart: peasants, workers, employees. Not upper classes and industrialists. With consequently attention to social protection policies etc. Well, these governments have finished to dismantle the last bastions of a labor policy that safeguarded the workers, to complete the splitting and division of the working class: "divide et impera". It amazes us that all this has pleased Confindustria, that is the association of industrialists? The PD party is an example of a party that claims a label that does not belong to it. End of the digression.